Now that Mitt Romney has picked Paul Ryan as his running mate, the question naturally arises in New Jersey: would he have done better with Chris Christie on his ticket?  And  if so, why pass him over for the polarizing Ryan?

            The answer to the first question is undoubtedly yes, on paper at least.  By picking a man closely identified not just with a radical budget plan but with the equally polarizing and equally unpopular House of Representatives, Romney  charges up the Republican base but risks losing the election where it remains in doubt, among independents.  Romney claims he has his own budget plan, but as an evaluation in the New York Times made clear yesterday, there are no details in that plan.  By default, the Ryan plan becomes the Romney plan, with potentially dire consequences to Republicans trying to hold congressional seats in tight races.

            Christie, by contrast as he has branded himself, is a Republican who not only carried a blue state and remains popular within it, he has achieved many of conservative goals without the kind of polarization that has been closely associated with Scott Walker in Wisconsin.  Christie has made the claim of bipartisan success, which includes most formidably rollbacks in state benefits and changes in teacher tenure, the benchmarks of his extensive advertising campaign in the months leading up to the vice presidential selection.   Popular nationally and a speaker well the equal of Ryan, Christie can be expected to play a central role in the GOP convention and campaign, but  his effect on the outcome will be minimal compared to that of Ryan.

            One can only speculate why Romney passed over Christie. No doubt, Ryan will help generate more money for the campaign, but raising money from conservatives against Obama was not going to be a problem. It’s possible that the chemistry was not right between the two men or, more likely, that Christie’s lack of personal discipline on the stump in periodic outbursts against critics weighed against him.  Romney doesn’t like surprises, and Chris Christie, whatever his strengths, is full of them.

            That leaves Christie—a politician with national ambitions if there ever was one—left to play out the only hand he has: work hard for the GOP ticket, and if it loses situate himself as a governor who can get things done within a framework that advances a conservative agenda. So far, South Jersey Democrats have helped him to some real victories. The going is likely to get tougher, however, now that the higher education battle is largely behind us. And as Romney rolls the dice with Ryan, Christie is going to have to reset his own calculations on how best to move his considerable ambitions forward.